The Bias of avoiding Spatial Dynamic Panel Models
A Tale of two Research Teams
Many questions in urban and regional economics can be characterized as including both a spatial and a time dimension. However, often one of these dimensions is neglected in empirical work. This paper highlights the danger of methodological inertia, investigating the effect of neglecting the spatial or the time dimension when in fact both are important. A tale of two research teams, one living in a purely dynamic and the other in a purely spatial world of thinking, sets the scene. Because the researcher teams' choices to omit a dimension change the assumed optimal estimation strategies, the issue is more difficult to analyze than a typical omitted variables problem. First, the bias of omitting a relevant dimension is approximated analytically. Second, Monte Carlo simulations show that the neglected dimension projects onto the other, with potentially disastrous results. Interestingly, dynamic models are bound to overestimate autoregressive behavior whenever the spatial dimension is important. The same holds true for the opposite case. An application using the well-known, openly available cigarette demand data supports these findings.
How to Cite
REGION is an open journal, and uses the standard Creative Commons license: Copyright We want authors to retain the maximum control over their work consistent with the first goal. For this reason, authors who publish in REGION will release their articles under the Creative Commons Attribution license. This license allows anyone to copy and distribute the article provided that appropriate attribution is given to REGION and the authors. For details of the rights authors grant users of their work, see the "human-readable summary" of the license, with a link to the full license. (Note that "you" refers to a user, not an author, in the summary.) Upon submission, the authors agree that the following three items are true: 1) The manuscript named above: a) represents valid work and neither it nor any other that I have written with substantially similar content has been published before in any form except as a preprint, b) is not concurrently submitted to another publication, and c) does not infringe anyone’s copyright. The Author(s) holds ERSA, WU, REGION, and the Editors of REGION harmless against all copyright claims. d) I have, or a coauthor has, had sufficient access to the data to verify the manuscript’s scientific integrity. 2) If asked, I will provide or fully cooperate in providing the data on which the manuscript is based so the editors or their assignees can examine it (where possible) 3) For papers with more than one author, I as the submitter have the permission of the coauthors to submit this work, and all authors agree that the corresponding author will be the main correspondent with the editorial office, and review the edited manuscript and proof. If there is only one author, I will be the corresponding author and agree to handle these responsibilities.